Bayer Leverkusen U19 3–1 Darmstadt 98 U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Darmstadt 98 U19

A. Aourir 88'

C. Moustfa 73'

K. Izekor 1'

L. Kaiser 45'

5/20/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League A - 4Jugendfußball-Zentrum Kurtekotten Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1960%

×Draw19%

Darmstadt 98 U1921%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayer Leverkusen U19Expected goals in this matchDarmstadt 98 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.41

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.45

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.41

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 48 away

2.65

creates per match

1.56

1.26

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.65

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.56

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.26

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Darmstadt 98 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw

79%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Darmstadt 98 U19

81%

Draw or Darmstadt 98 U19

40%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

39%

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

91%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

70%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

44%

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

76%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

41%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

Darmstadt 98 U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.65 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.45

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.56 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

60%

level

19%

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

21%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

K. Izekor

45'

L. Kaiser

46'

C. Moustfa← Jung In-Gyom

46'

J. Zirkzee← M. Monamay

46'

P. Hamm← V. Turudija

60'

A. Bäuerle← A. Fazlija

60'

M. Marsenić← R. Münz

60'

M. Borger← L. Kaiser

60'

M. Träger← A. Schreck

69'

73'

77'

86'

88'

Bayer

Darmstadt

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Izekor

Manager: S. Hübscher

46'▲C. Moustfa←▼Jung In-Gyom

46'▲J. Zirkzee←▼M. Monamay

60'▲A. Bäuerle←▼A. Fazlija

60'▲M. Marsenić←▼R. Münz

69'▲L. Ferati←▼K. Izekor

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

MoustfaZirkzeeBäuerleMarsenićFeratiNovodomsky

Manager: D. Petrowsky

46'▲P. Hamm←▼V. Turudija

60'▲M. Borger←▼L. Kaiser

60'▲M. Träger←▼A. Schreck

77'▲T. Arnold←▼A. Toch

86'▲J. Fazal←▼A. Arania

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

HammBorgerTrägerArnoldFazalZimmer

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Darmstadt 98 U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 20, 2023.

Goals: K. Izekor (1'), L. Kaiser (45'), C. Moustfa (73'), A. Aourir (88').

The match was played at Jugendfußball-Zentrum Kurtekotten Platz 4 in Köln.

Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19