Bayer Leverkusen U19 2–2 Bayern München U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19

AET

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bayern München U19

A. Heard 118'

F. Onyeka 105+1'

L. Puljić 90+2' (OG)

J. Mensah 26'

Y. Nasrawe 99'

F. Chávez 72' (pen)

M. Dalpiaz 1'

5/10/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Championship - Semi-finalsUlrich-Haberland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1944%

×Draw21%

Bayern München U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayer Leverkusen U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.94

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.16

Bayern München U19

1.94

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 72 away

2.65

creates per match

2.63

1.26

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.65

Bayern München U19

2.63

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.26

Bayern München U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw

64%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Bayern München U19

79%

Draw or Bayern München U19

56%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

25%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

88%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

63%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

36%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

86%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

58%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.65 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.16

Bayern München U19 attack 2.63 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

44%

level

21%

Bayern München U19 scores more

36%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

M. Dalpiaz

26'

J. Mensah

72'

F. ChávezPenalty

75'

S. Zöls← L. Richter

75'

Y. Nasrawe← D. Ofli

77'

I. Eichie← O. Raterink

77'

J. Kurowski← A. Kister

77'

K. Izekor← F. Pohl

90'

B. Hawighorst← I. Eichie

90+2'

L. PuljićOwn goal

99'

Y. Nasrawe

100'

E. Owen← A. Stepanov

105'

M. Schuhbauer← T. Binder

105+1'

F. Onyeka

116'

A. Heard← J. Mensah

116'

B. Olychenko← F. Chávez

118'

A. Heard

Bayer

Bayern

🥅

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▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Sergi Runge

77'▲I. Eichie←▼O. Raterink

77'▲J. Kurowski←▼A. Kister

77'▲K. Izekor←▼F. Pohl

90'▲B. Hawighorst←▼I. Eichie

100'▲E. Owen←▼A. Stepanov

116'▲A. Heard←▼J. Mensah

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

EichieKurowskiIzekorHawighorstOwenHeardSchrief

Manager: P. Gaydarov

75'▲S. Zöls←▼L. Richter

75'▲Y. Nasrawe←▼D. Ofli

105'▲M. Schuhbauer←▼T. Binder

116'▲B. Olychenko←▼F. Chávez

Bayern München U19 substitutes

ZölsNasraweSchuhbauerOlychenkoPaylanSchäferStancic

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Bayern München U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 and Bayern München U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on May 10, 2025.

Goals: M. Dalpiaz (1'), J. Mensah (26'), F. Chávez (72' pen), L. Puljić (90+2' o.g.), Y. Nasrawe (99'), F. Onyeka (105+1'), A. Heard (118').

The match was played at Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion in Leverkusen.

Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Bayern München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Bayern München U19