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Bayelsa United vs Warri Wolves — NPFL 2019

Bayelsa United
Bayelsa United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves
3/15/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 30Samson Siasia Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bayelsa United58%
×Draw24%
Warri Wolves18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayelsa United
1.65
Warri Wolves
0.78

Bayelsa United creates 112% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 51 away

creates per match

Bayelsa United
1.65
Warri Wolves
0.71

allows per match

Bayelsa United
0.85
Warri Wolves
1.65

finishing

Bayelsa United+0.00on par
Warri Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayelsa United ↓

Warri Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bayelsa United or draw
82%
Bayelsa United or Warri Wolves
76%
Draw or Warri Wolves
42%

Winning margin

Bayelsa United wins by 2+
32%
Warri Wolves wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bayelsa United 1+ goals
81%
Bayelsa United 2+ goals
49%
Bayelsa United 3+ goals
23%
Warri Wolves 1+ goals
54%
Warri Wolves 2+ goals
18%
Warri Wolves 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bayelsa United (draw refunded)
77%
Warri Wolves (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayelsa United at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.85 · 66 matches

Warri Wolves away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayelsa United attack 1.65 + Warri Wolves defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Warri Wolves attack 0.71 + Bayelsa United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bayelsa United scores more
58%
level
24%
Warri Wolves scores more
18%

Bayelsa United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bayelsa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Bayelsa United 2–1 Warri Wolves

Bayelsa United beat Warri Wolves 2-1 in NPFL on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Samson Siasia Sports Stadium in Yenagoa.