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Bayelsa United vs Kun Khalifat FC — NPFL 2019

Bayelsa United
Bayelsa United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kun Khalifat FC
Kun Khalifat FC
10/19/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 9Samson Siasia Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bayelsa United52%
×Draw27%
Kun Khalifat FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayelsa United
1.46
Kun Khalifat FC
0.84

Bayelsa United creates 74% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 18 away

creates per match

Bayelsa United
1.65
Kun Khalifat FC
0.83

allows per match

Bayelsa United
0.85
Kun Khalifat FC
1.28

finishing

Bayelsa United+0.00on par
Kun Khalifat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayelsa United ↓

Kun Khalifat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bayelsa United or draw
78%
Bayelsa United or Kun Khalifat FC
73%
Draw or Kun Khalifat FC
48%

Winning margin

Bayelsa United wins by 2+
26%
Kun Khalifat FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bayelsa United 1+ goals
77%
Bayelsa United 2+ goals
43%
Bayelsa United 3+ goals
18%
Kun Khalifat FC 1+ goals
57%
Kun Khalifat FC 2+ goals
21%
Kun Khalifat FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bayelsa United (draw refunded)
70%
Kun Khalifat FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayelsa United at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.85 · 66 matches

Kun Khalifat FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayelsa United attack 1.65 + Kun Khalifat FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kun Khalifat FC attack 0.83 + Bayelsa United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bayelsa United scores more
52%
level
27%
Kun Khalifat FC scores more
22%

Bayelsa United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bayelsa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Bayelsa United 1–2 Kun Khalifat FC

Kun Khalifat FC beat Bayelsa United 2-1 in NPFL on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Samson Siasia Sports Stadium in Yenagoa.