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Bayelsa United vs Enyimba — NPFL 2019

Bayelsa United
Bayelsa United
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Enyimba
Enyimba
9/14/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 4Samson Siasia Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bayelsa United52%
×Draw27%
Enyimba21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayelsa United
1.44
Enyimba
0.79

Bayelsa United creates 82% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 130 away

creates per match

Bayelsa United
1.65
Enyimba
0.74

allows per match

Bayelsa United
0.85
Enyimba
1.22

finishing

Bayelsa United+0.00on par
Enyimba+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayelsa United ↓

Enyimba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bayelsa United or draw
79%
Bayelsa United or Enyimba
73%
Draw or Enyimba
48%

Winning margin

Bayelsa United wins by 2+
26%
Enyimba wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bayelsa United 1+ goals
76%
Bayelsa United 2+ goals
42%
Bayelsa United 3+ goals
18%
Enyimba 1+ goals
55%
Enyimba 2+ goals
19%
Enyimba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bayelsa United (draw refunded)
72%
Enyimba (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayelsa United at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.85 · 66 matches

Enyimba away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayelsa United attack 1.65 + Enyimba defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Enyimba attack 0.74 + Bayelsa United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bayelsa United scores more
52%
level
27%
Enyimba scores more
21%

Bayelsa United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bayelsa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Bayelsa United 0–2 Enyimba

Enyimba beat Bayelsa United 2-0 in NPFL on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Samson Siasia Sports Stadium in Yenagoa.