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Bayelsa United vs Bendel Insurance — NPFL 2019

Bayelsa United
Bayelsa United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bendel Insurance
Bendel Insurance
3/2/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 27Samson Siasia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bayelsa United53%
×Draw28%
Bendel Insurance20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayelsa United
1.39
Bendel Insurance
0.73

Bayelsa United creates 90% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 79 away

creates per match

Bayelsa United
1.65
Bendel Insurance
0.61

allows per match

Bayelsa United
0.85
Bendel Insurance
1.13

finishing

Bayelsa United+0.00on par
Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayelsa United ↓

Bendel Insurance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bayelsa United or draw
80%
Bayelsa United or Bendel Insurance
72%
Draw or Bendel Insurance
47%

Winning margin

Bayelsa United wins by 2+
26%
Bendel Insurance wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bayelsa United 1+ goals
75%
Bayelsa United 2+ goals
40%
Bayelsa United 3+ goals
16%
Bendel Insurance 1+ goals
52%
Bendel Insurance 2+ goals
17%
Bendel Insurance 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bayelsa United (draw refunded)
73%
Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayelsa United at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.85 · 66 matches

Bendel Insurance away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayelsa United attack 1.65 + Bendel Insurance defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bendel Insurance attack 0.61 + Bayelsa United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bayelsa United scores more
53%
level
28%
Bendel Insurance scores more
20%

Bayelsa United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bayelsa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bayelsa United vs Bendel Insurance

Bayelsa United beat Bendel Insurance 2-1 in NPFL on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Samson Siasia Stadium in Yenagoa.