Bayelsa United 2–0 Barau FC: Result & Stats | NPFL

Bayelsa United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barau FC

8/31/2025

NPFL · Round 2Samson Siasia Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bayelsa United56%

×Draw29%

Barau FC15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayelsa UnitedExpected goals in this matchBarau FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.55

Bayelsa United

1.32

Barau FC

0.55

Bayelsa United creates 140% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 19 away

1.65

creates per match

0.26

0.85

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bayelsa United

1.65

Barau FC

0.26

allows per match

Bayelsa United

0.85

Barau FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayelsa United+0.00on par

Barau FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayelsa United ↓

Barau FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Bayelsa United or draw

85%

Bayelsa United or Barau FC

71%

Draw or Barau FC

44%

Winning margin

Bayelsa United wins by 2+

27%

Barau FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bayelsa United 1+ goals

73%

Bayelsa United 2+ goals

38%

Bayelsa United 3+ goals

15%

Barau FC 1+ goals

42%

Barau FC 2+ goals

11%

Barau FC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Bayelsa United (draw refunded)

78%

Barau FC (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayelsa United at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.85 · 66 matches

Barau FC away — creates 0.26, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayelsa United attack 1.65 + Barau FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Barau FC attack 0.26 + Bayelsa United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bayelsa United scores more

56%

level

29%

Barau FC scores more

15%

Bayelsa United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bayelsa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff