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Bayburt İÖİ vs Serhat Ardahanspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bayburt İÖİ
Bayburt İÖİ
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Serhat Ardahanspor
Serhat Ardahanspor
9/11/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundBayburt Genç Osman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bayburt İÖİ56%
×Draw22%
Serhat Ardahanspor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayburt İÖİ
1.96
Serhat Ardahanspor
1.13

Bayburt İÖİ creates 73% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bayburt İÖİ
1.25
Serhat Ardahanspor
0.00

allows per match

Bayburt İÖİ
2.25
Serhat Ardahanspor
2.67

finishing

Bayburt İÖİ+0.00on par
Serhat Ardahanspor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayburt İÖİ ↓

Serhat Ardahanspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bayburt İÖİ or draw
78%
Bayburt İÖİ or Serhat Ardahanspor
78%
Draw or Serhat Ardahanspor
44%

Winning margin

Bayburt İÖİ wins by 2+
33%
Serhat Ardahanspor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bayburt İÖİ 1+ goals
86%
Bayburt İÖİ 2+ goals
58%
Bayburt İÖİ 3+ goals
31%
Serhat Ardahanspor 1+ goals
68%
Serhat Ardahanspor 2+ goals
31%
Serhat Ardahanspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bayburt İÖİ (draw refunded)
72%
Serhat Ardahanspor (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayburt İÖİ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Serhat Ardahanspor away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayburt İÖİ attack 1.25 + Serhat Ardahanspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Serhat Ardahanspor attack 0.00 + Bayburt İÖİ defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bayburt İÖİ scores more
56%
level
22%
Serhat Ardahanspor scores more
22%

Bayburt İÖİ at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bayburt İÖİ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bayburt İÖİ vs Serhat Ardahanspor

Bayburt İÖİ beat Serhat Ardahanspor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Bayburt Genç Osman Stadyumu in Bayburt.