Bayburt İÖİ 2–0 İzmir Çoruhlu FK: Result & Stats

Bayburt İÖİ

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

İzmir Çoruhlu FK

10/9/2024

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundBayburt Genç Osman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bayburt İÖİ42%

×Draw25%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayburt İÖİExpected goals in this matchİzmir Çoruhlu FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.32

Bayburt İÖİ

1.52

İzmir Çoruhlu FK

1.32

Bayburt İÖİ creates 15% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

0.40

2.25

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Bayburt İÖİ

1.25

İzmir Çoruhlu FK

0.40

allows per match

Bayburt İÖİ

2.25

İzmir Çoruhlu FK

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayburt İÖİ+0.00on par

İzmir Çoruhlu FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayburt İÖİ ↓

İzmir Çoruhlu FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bayburt İÖİ or draw

67%

Bayburt İÖİ or İzmir Çoruhlu FK

75%

Draw or İzmir Çoruhlu FK

58%

Winning margin

Bayburt İÖİ wins by 2+

21%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bayburt İÖİ 1+ goals

78%

Bayburt İÖİ 2+ goals

45%

Bayburt İÖİ 3+ goals

20%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK 1+ goals

73%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK 2+ goals

38%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bayburt İÖİ (draw refunded)

56%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayburt İÖİ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

İzmir Çoruhlu FK away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayburt İÖİ attack 1.25 + İzmir Çoruhlu FK defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

İzmir Çoruhlu FK attack 0.40 + Bayburt İÖİ defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bayburt İÖİ scores more

42%

level

25%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK scores more

33%

Bayburt İÖİ at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bayburt İÖİ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff