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Bayanzürkh Sporting vs Khoromkhon — Premier League 2020

Bayanzürkh Sporting
Bayanzürkh Sporting
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Khoromkhon
Khoromkhon
8/17/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Airdom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting37%
×Draw19%
Khoromkhon44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayanzürkh Sporting
2.35
Khoromkhon
2.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 57 away

creates per match

Bayanzürkh Sporting
1.15
Khoromkhon
2.00

allows per match

Bayanzürkh Sporting
3.12
Khoromkhon
3.56

finishing

Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par
Khoromkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayanzürkh Sporting ↓

Khoromkhon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Bayanzürkh Sporting or draw
56%
Bayanzürkh Sporting or Khoromkhon
81%
Draw or Khoromkhon
63%

Winning margin

Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+
21%
Khoromkhon wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals
90%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals
68%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals
41%
Khoromkhon 1+ goals
92%
Khoromkhon 2+ goals
72%
Khoromkhon 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)
46%
Khoromkhon (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayanzürkh Sporting at home — creates 1.15, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

Khoromkhon away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.56 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 1.15 + Khoromkhon defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.35

Khoromkhon attack 2.00 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more
37%
level
19%
Khoromkhon scores more
44%

Khoromkhon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Khoromkhon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bayanzürkh Sporting 2–3 Khoromkhon

Khoromkhon beat Bayanzürkh Sporting 3-2 in Premier League on August 17, 2023.

The match was played at Airdom Stadium in Ulaanbaatar.