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Bay FC W vs Orlando Pride W — NWSL Women 2025

Bay FC W
Bay FC W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Orlando Pride W
Orlando Pride W
B. Banda 84'
9/21/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 15PayPal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Bay FC W31%
×Draw27%
Orlando Pride W42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bay FC W
1.09
Orlando Pride W
1.31

Orlando Pride W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

creates per match

Bay FC W
1.04
Orlando Pride W
1.19

allows per match

Bay FC W
1.44
Orlando Pride W
1.15

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par
Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

Orlando Pride W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw
58%
Bay FC W or Orlando Pride W
73%
Draw or Orlando Pride W
69%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+
12%
Orlando Pride W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals
66%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
30%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
10%
Orlando Pride W 1+ goals
73%
Orlando Pride W 2+ goals
38%
Orlando Pride W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)
43%
Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Orlando Pride W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 1.04 + Orlando Pride W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Orlando Pride W attack 1.19 + Bay FC W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bay FC W scores more
31%
level
27%
Orlando Pride W scores more
42%

Orlando Pride W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Orlando Pride W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. MoorhouseOrlando Pride WOrlando Pride W · G
8.2

Match Events

61'
M. Moreau← A. Malonson
64'
C. Lawrence← C. Dyke
64'
K. Strom← Angelina
64'
S. Yates← J. Doyle
76'
Madeline Moreau
76'
E. Duljan← M. Gautrat
77'
P. Hocking← A. Oshoala
80'
A. Watt← Marta
84'
B. Banda↳ C. Pickett

Possession

45%Bay

Shots

13Bay

Pass accuracy

50%Bay

Statistics

BayOrlando
Overview
45%Possession55%
13Total Shots13
1Corners4
8Fouls7
Shots
13Total Shots13
6On Target6
5Off Target5
2Blocked2
8Inside Box10
5Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
410Total Passes505
324Accurate Passes404
79%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
6Saves6
Discipline
8Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Bay FC W vs Orlando Pride W

Orlando Pride W beat Bay FC W 1-0 in NWSL Women on September 21, 2024.

Goals: B. Banda (84').

Orlando Pride W controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at PayPal Park in San Jose, California.