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Bay FC W vs Houston Dash W — NWSL Women 2025

Bay FC W
Bay FC W
Preview
22:00
Houston Dash W
Houston Dash W
8/23/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StagePayPal Park
42%
Bay FC W
model favours
42%27%30%
1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Bay FC W42%
×Draw27%
Houston Dash W30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bay FC W
1.35
Houston Dash W
1.10

Bay FC W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

creates per match

Bay FC W
1.00
Houston Dash W
0.79

allows per match

Bay FC W
1.41
Houston Dash W
1.71

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par
Houston Dash W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

Houston Dash W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw
70%
Bay FC W or Houston Dash W
73%
Draw or Houston Dash W
58%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+
20%
Houston Dash W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals
74%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
39%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
15%
Houston Dash W 1+ goals
67%
Houston Dash W 2+ goals
30%
Houston Dash W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)
58%
Houston Dash W (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Houston Dash W away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 1.00 + Houston Dash W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Houston Dash W attack 0.79 + Bay FC W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bay FC W scores more
42%
level
27%
Houston Dash W scores more
30%

Bay FC W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bay FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bay FC W fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 2.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bay FC W
Attack-heavy
Houston Dash W
Balanced
51%Possession50%
78%Pass accuracy80%
12.3ShotsBiggest gap8.1
2.18xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bay FC WHouston Dash W

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLLL
W
DLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bay FC W face Houston Dash W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with Bay FC W hosting Houston Dash W. Match starts August 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bay FC W host Houston Dash W at PayPal Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.