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Bavois vs Sion II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Bavois
Bavois
CANC
00:00
Sion II
Sion II
3/21/20201. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 21Stade des Peupliers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Bavois48%
×Draw22%
Sion II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bavois
1.89
Sion II
1.45

Bavois creates 30% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 39 away

creates per match

Bavois
1.63
Sion II
1.41

allows per match

Bavois
1.49
Sion II
2.15

finishing

Bavois+0.00on par
Sion II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bavois ↓

Sion II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bavois or draw
70%
Bavois or Sion II
78%
Draw or Sion II
52%

Winning margin

Bavois wins by 2+
27%
Sion II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bavois 1+ goals
85%
Bavois 2+ goals
56%
Bavois 3+ goals
29%
Sion II 1+ goals
77%
Sion II 2+ goals
42%
Sion II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bavois (draw refunded)
62%
Sion II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bavois at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.49 · 104 matches

Sion II away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.15 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bavois attack 1.63 + Sion II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sion II attack 1.41 + Bavois defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bavois scores more
48%
level
22%
Sion II scores more
30%

Bavois at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bavois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bavois vs Sion II — Match Preview

Bavois face Sion II on March 21, 2020 in this 1. Liga Promotion fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bavois host Sion II at Stade des Peupliers.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.