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Bavois vs Lugano II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Bavois
Bavois
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Lugano II
Lugano II
3/23/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 24Stade des Peupliers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bavois49%
×Draw22%
Lugano II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bavois
1.91
Lugano II
1.44

Bavois creates 33% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 51 away

creates per match

Bavois
1.63
Lugano II
1.39

allows per match

Bavois
1.49
Lugano II
2.18

finishing

Bavois+0.00on par
Lugano II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bavois ↓

Lugano II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bavois or draw
71%
Bavois or Lugano II
78%
Draw or Lugano II
51%

Winning margin

Bavois wins by 2+
27%
Lugano II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bavois 1+ goals
85%
Bavois 2+ goals
57%
Bavois 3+ goals
30%
Lugano II 1+ goals
76%
Lugano II 2+ goals
42%
Lugano II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bavois (draw refunded)
62%
Lugano II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bavois at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.49 · 104 matches

Lugano II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bavois attack 1.63 + Lugano II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.91

Lugano II attack 1.39 + Bavois defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bavois scores more
49%
level
22%
Lugano II scores more
29%

Bavois at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bavois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bavois vs Lugano II

Bavois beat Lugano II 3-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade des Peupliers in Bavois.