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Bavois vs Köniz — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Bavois
Bavois
PST
00:00
Köniz
Köniz
3/14/20211. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 19Stade des Peupliers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Bavois57%
×Draw20%
Köniz22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bavois
2.24
Köniz
1.34

Bavois creates 67% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 20 away

creates per match

Bavois
1.63
Köniz
1.20

allows per match

Bavois
1.49
Köniz
2.85

finishing

Bavois+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bavois ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bavois or draw
78%
Bavois or Köniz
80%
Draw or Köniz
43%

Winning margin

Bavois wins by 2+
36%
Köniz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bavois 1+ goals
89%
Bavois 2+ goals
65%
Bavois 3+ goals
38%
Köniz 1+ goals
74%
Köniz 2+ goals
39%
Köniz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bavois (draw refunded)
72%
Köniz (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bavois at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.49 · 104 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bavois attack 1.63 + Köniz defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.24

Köniz attack 1.20 + Bavois defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bavois scores more
57%
level
20%
Köniz scores more
22%

Bavois at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bavois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bavois vs Köniz — Match Preview

Bavois face Köniz on March 14, 2021 in this 1. Liga Promotion fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bavois host Köniz at Stade des Peupliers.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.