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Bavois vs Cham — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Bavois
Bavois
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cham
Cham
2/22/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 20Stade des Peupliers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Bavois41%
×Draw23%
Cham35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bavois
1.67
Cham
1.52

Bavois creates 10% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 104 away

creates per match

Bavois
1.63
Cham
1.56

allows per match

Bavois
1.49
Cham
1.72

finishing

Bavois+0.00on par
Cham+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bavois ↓

Cham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bavois or draw
65%
Bavois or Cham
77%
Draw or Cham
59%

Winning margin

Bavois wins by 2+
21%
Cham wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bavois 1+ goals
81%
Bavois 2+ goals
50%
Bavois 3+ goals
23%
Cham 1+ goals
78%
Cham 2+ goals
45%
Cham 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bavois (draw refunded)
54%
Cham (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bavois at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.49 · 104 matches

Cham away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bavois attack 1.63 + Cham defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cham attack 1.56 + Bavois defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bavois scores more
41%
level
23%
Cham scores more
35%

Bavois at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bavois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Bavois 0–0 Cham

Bavois and Cham drew 0-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Peupliers in Bavois.