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Baunatal vs Hessen Dreieich — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Baunatal
Baunatal
FT
1 – 3
Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
9/19/2020Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 4Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Baunatal40%
×Draw22%
Hessen Dreieich38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baunatal
1.77
Hessen Dreieich
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 21 away

creates per match

Baunatal
2.03
Hessen Dreieich
2.14

allows per match

Baunatal
1.32
Hessen Dreieich
1.52

finishing

Baunatal+0.00on par
Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baunatal ↓

Hessen Dreieich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Baunatal or draw
62%
Baunatal or Hessen Dreieich
78%
Draw or Hessen Dreieich
60%

Winning margin

Baunatal wins by 2+
21%
Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Baunatal 1+ goals
83%
Baunatal 2+ goals
53%
Baunatal 3+ goals
26%
Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
82%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
52%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Baunatal (draw refunded)
51%
Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baunatal at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.32 · 92 matches

Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baunatal attack 2.03 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Baunatal defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baunatal scores more
40%
level
22%
Hessen Dreieich scores more
38%

Baunatal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baunatal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Baunatal 1–3 Hessen Dreieich

Hessen Dreieich beat Baunatal 3-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Parkstadion in Baunatal.