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Baunatal vs Hanau 93 — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Baunatal
Baunatal
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Hanau 93
Hanau 93
3/22/2025Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 29Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Baunatal54%
×Draw21%
Hanau 9325%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baunatal
2.12
Hanau 93
1.40

Baunatal creates 51% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 92 away

creates per match

Baunatal
2.03
Hanau 93
1.48

allows per match

Baunatal
1.32
Hanau 93
2.21

finishing

Baunatal+0.00on par
Hanau 93+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baunatal ↓

Hanau 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Baunatal or draw
75%
Baunatal or Hanau 93
79%
Draw or Hanau 93
46%

Winning margin

Baunatal wins by 2+
32%
Hanau 93 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Baunatal 1+ goals
88%
Baunatal 2+ goals
62%
Baunatal 3+ goals
35%
Hanau 93 1+ goals
75%
Hanau 93 2+ goals
41%
Hanau 93 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Baunatal (draw refunded)
68%
Hanau 93 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baunatal at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.32 · 92 matches

Hanau 93 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baunatal attack 2.03 + Hanau 93 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.12

Hanau 93 attack 1.48 + Baunatal defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Baunatal scores more
54%
level
21%
Hanau 93 scores more
25%

Baunatal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Baunatal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Baunatal 3–2 Hanau 93

Baunatal beat Hanau 93 3-2 in Oberliga - Hessen on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Parkstadion in Baunatal.