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Baunatal vs Dietkirchen — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Baunatal
Baunatal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Dietkirchen
Dietkirchen
9/9/2023Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 7Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Baunatal64%
×Draw18%
Dietkirchen18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baunatal
2.46
Dietkirchen
1.23

Baunatal creates 100% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 57 away

creates per match

Baunatal
2.03
Dietkirchen
1.14

allows per match

Baunatal
1.32
Dietkirchen
2.89

finishing

Baunatal+0.00on par
Dietkirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baunatal ↓

Dietkirchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Baunatal or draw
82%
Baunatal or Dietkirchen
82%
Draw or Dietkirchen
36%

Winning margin

Baunatal wins by 2+
42%
Dietkirchen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Baunatal 1+ goals
91%
Baunatal 2+ goals
70%
Baunatal 3+ goals
44%
Dietkirchen 1+ goals
71%
Dietkirchen 2+ goals
35%
Dietkirchen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Baunatal (draw refunded)
78%
Dietkirchen (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baunatal at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.32 · 92 matches

Dietkirchen away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.89 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baunatal attack 2.03 + Dietkirchen defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.46

Dietkirchen attack 1.14 + Baunatal defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Baunatal scores more
64%
level
18%
Dietkirchen scores more
18%

Baunatal at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Baunatal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baunatal vs Dietkirchen

Baunatal beat Dietkirchen 2-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Parkstadion in Baunatal.