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Baumholder vs Wormatia Worms — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Baumholder
Baumholder
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
11/19/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Baumholder Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Baumholder32%
×Draw21%
Wormatia Worms47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baumholder
1.75
Wormatia Worms
2.13

Wormatia Worms creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 68 away

creates per match

Baumholder
1.79
Wormatia Worms
1.99

allows per match

Baumholder
2.26
Wormatia Worms
1.72

finishing

Baumholder+0.00on par
Wormatia Worms+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baumholder ↓

Wormatia Worms →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Baumholder or draw
53%
Baumholder or Wormatia Worms
79%
Draw or Wormatia Worms
68%

Winning margin

Baumholder wins by 2+
16%
Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Baumholder 1+ goals
83%
Baumholder 2+ goals
52%
Baumholder 3+ goals
25%
Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
88%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
63%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Baumholder (draw refunded)
41%
Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baumholder at home — creates 1.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Wormatia Worms away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baumholder attack 1.79 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Wormatia Worms attack 1.99 + Baumholder defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baumholder scores more
32%
level
21%
Wormatia Worms scores more
47%

Wormatia Worms at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baumholder vs Wormatia Worms

Wormatia Worms beat Baumholder 5-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Baumholder Kunstrasen in Baumholder.