Baumholder 3–1 Bitburg: Result & Stats

Baumholder

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bitburg

4/6/2024

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 30Baumholder Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Baumholder53%

×Draw19%

Bitburg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaumholderExpected goals in this matchBitburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.73

Baumholder

2.45

Bitburg

1.73

Baumholder creates 42% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.79

creates per match

1.21

2.26

allows per match

3.11

creates per match

Baumholder

1.79

Bitburg

1.21

allows per match

Baumholder

2.26

Bitburg

3.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baumholder+0.00on par

Bitburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baumholder ↓

Bitburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Baumholder or draw

73%

Baumholder or Bitburg

81%

Draw or Bitburg

47%

Winning margin

Baumholder wins by 2+

33%

Bitburg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Baumholder 1+ goals

91%

Baumholder 2+ goals

70%

Baumholder 3+ goals

44%

Bitburg 1+ goals

82%

Bitburg 2+ goals

52%

Bitburg 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Baumholder (draw refunded)

66%

Bitburg (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baumholder at home — creates 1.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Bitburg away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baumholder attack 1.79 + Bitburg defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.45

Bitburg attack 1.21 + Baumholder defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Baumholder scores more

53%

level

19%

Bitburg scores more

27%

Baumholder at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Baumholder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff