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Baumholder vs Auersmacher — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Baumholder
Baumholder
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Auersmacher
Auersmacher
9/2/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 8Baumholder Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Baumholder39%
×Draw21%
Auersmacher39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baumholder
1.91
Auersmacher
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 63 away

creates per match

Baumholder
1.79
Auersmacher
1.54

allows per match

Baumholder
2.26
Auersmacher
2.03

finishing

Baumholder+0.00on par
Auersmacher+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baumholder ↓

Auersmacher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Baumholder or draw
61%
Baumholder or Auersmacher
79%
Draw or Auersmacher
61%

Winning margin

Baumholder wins by 2+
21%
Auersmacher wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Baumholder 1+ goals
85%
Baumholder 2+ goals
57%
Baumholder 3+ goals
30%
Auersmacher 1+ goals
85%
Auersmacher 2+ goals
56%
Auersmacher 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Baumholder (draw refunded)
50%
Auersmacher (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baumholder at home — creates 1.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Auersmacher away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.03 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baumholder attack 1.79 + Auersmacher defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.91

Auersmacher attack 1.54 + Baumholder defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baumholder scores more
39%
level
21%
Auersmacher scores more
39%

Baumholder at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baumholder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Baumholder 4–4 Auersmacher

Baumholder and Auersmacher drew 4-4 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Baumholder Kunstrasen in Baumholder.