Baumholder 3–2 Alemannia Waldalgesheim

Baumholder

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

10/14/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 17Baumholder Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Baumholder44%

×Draw22%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaumholderExpected goals in this matchAlemannia Waldalgesheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.74

Baumholder

1.97

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.74

Baumholder creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 43 away

1.79

creates per match

1.23

2.26

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Baumholder

1.79

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.23

allows per match

Baumholder

2.26

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baumholder+0.00on par

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baumholder ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Baumholder or draw

65%

Baumholder or Alemannia Waldalgesheim

78%

Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim

56%

Winning margin

Baumholder wins by 2+

24%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Baumholder 1+ goals

86%

Baumholder 2+ goals

58%

Baumholder 3+ goals

31%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals

82%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals

52%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Baumholder (draw refunded)

56%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baumholder at home — creates 1.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baumholder attack 1.79 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.97

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.23 + Baumholder defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Baumholder scores more

44%

level

22%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more

35%

Baumholder at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Baumholder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff