Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Baťov vs Viktorie Přerov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Baťov
Baťov
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Viktorie Přerov
Viktorie Přerov
8/11/20234. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 2Sportovní Areál Baťov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Baťov48%
×Draw22%
Viktorie Přerov31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baťov
2.02
Viktorie Přerov
1.59

Baťov creates 27% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 53 away

creates per match

Baťov
1.70
Viktorie Přerov
1.51

allows per match

Baťov
1.68
Viktorie Přerov
2.34

finishing

Baťov+0.00on par
Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baťov ↓

Viktorie Přerov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Baťov or draw
69%
Baťov or Viktorie Přerov
78%
Draw or Viktorie Přerov
52%

Winning margin

Baťov wins by 2+
27%
Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Baťov 1+ goals
87%
Baťov 2+ goals
60%
Baťov 3+ goals
33%
Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals
80%
Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals
47%
Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Baťov (draw refunded)
61%
Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baťov at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.68 · 56 matches

Viktorie Přerov away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baťov attack 1.70 + Viktorie Přerov defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.02

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.51 + Baťov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Baťov scores more
48%
level
22%
Viktorie Přerov scores more
31%

Baťov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Baťov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baťov vs Viktorie Přerov

Baťov beat Viktorie Přerov 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportovní Areál Baťov in Otrokovice.