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Baťov vs Šternberk — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Baťov
Baťov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Šternberk
Šternberk
11/9/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 15Sportovní Areál Baťov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Baťov42%
×Draw24%
Šternberk34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baťov
1.61
Šternberk
1.44

Baťov creates 12% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 56 away

creates per match

Baťov
1.70
Šternberk
1.21

allows per match

Baťov
1.68
Šternberk
1.52

finishing

Baťov+0.00on par
Šternberk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baťov ↓

Šternberk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Baťov or draw
66%
Baťov or Šternberk
76%
Draw or Šternberk
58%

Winning margin

Baťov wins by 2+
21%
Šternberk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Baťov 1+ goals
80%
Baťov 2+ goals
48%
Baťov 3+ goals
22%
Šternberk 1+ goals
76%
Šternberk 2+ goals
42%
Šternberk 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Baťov (draw refunded)
55%
Šternberk (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baťov at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.68 · 56 matches

Šternberk away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.52 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baťov attack 1.70 + Šternberk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.61

Šternberk attack 1.21 + Baťov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Baťov scores more
42%
level
24%
Šternberk scores more
34%

Baťov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baťov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baťov vs Šternberk

Baťov beat Šternberk 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportovní Areál Baťov in Otrokovice.