Baťov 6–3 HFK Olomouc: Result & Stats

Baťov

FT

6 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

HFK Olomouc

4/13/2024

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 21Sportovní Areál Baťov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Baťov52%

×Draw21%

HFK Olomouc27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaťovExpected goals in this matchHFK Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.44

Baťov

2.08

HFK Olomouc

1.44

Baťov creates 44% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 66 away

1.70

creates per match

1.21

1.68

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Baťov

1.70

HFK Olomouc

1.21

allows per match

Baťov

1.68

HFK Olomouc

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baťov+0.00on par

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baťov ↓

HFK Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Baťov or draw

73%

Baťov or HFK Olomouc

79%

Draw or HFK Olomouc

48%

Winning margin

Baťov wins by 2+

31%

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Baťov 1+ goals

87%

Baťov 2+ goals

61%

Baťov 3+ goals

34%

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals

76%

HFK Olomouc 2+ goals

42%

HFK Olomouc 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Baťov (draw refunded)

66%

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baťov at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.68 · 56 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baťov attack 1.70 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.08

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Baťov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Baťov scores more

52%

level

21%

HFK Olomouc scores more

27%

Baťov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Baťov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff