Batman Petrolspor 2–3 Kasımpaşa: Result & Stats

Batman Petrolspor

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Kasımpaşa

10/30/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundBatman Yeni Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Batman Petrolspor33%

×Draw26%

Kasımpaşa42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Batman PetrolsporExpected goals in this matchKasımpaşa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.46

Batman Petrolspor

1.27

Kasımpaşa

1.46

Kasımpaşa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

1.18

1.75

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Batman Petrolspor

1.00

Kasımpaşa

1.18

allows per match

Batman Petrolspor

1.75

Kasımpaşa

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Batman Petrolspor+0.00on par

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Batman Petrolspor ↓

Kasımpaşa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Batman Petrolspor or draw

58%

Batman Petrolspor or Kasımpaşa

74%

Draw or Kasımpaşa

67%

Winning margin

Batman Petrolspor wins by 2+

14%

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Batman Petrolspor 1+ goals

72%

Batman Petrolspor 2+ goals

36%

Batman Petrolspor 3+ goals

14%

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals

77%

Kasımpaşa 2+ goals

43%

Kasımpaşa 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Batman Petrolspor (draw refunded)

44%

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Batman Petrolspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Kasımpaşa away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Batman Petrolspor attack 1.00 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kasımpaşa attack 1.18 + Batman Petrolspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Batman Petrolspor scores more

33%

level

26%

Kasımpaşa scores more

42%

Kasımpaşa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kasımpaşa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff