Batman Petrolspor 2–2 Gölcükspor: Result & Stats

Batman Petrolspor

FT

2 – 2

Gölcükspor

3/11/2016

League #554 · Round 3016 Mayıs Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Batman Petrolspor34%

×Draw23%

Gölcükspor44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Batman PetrolsporExpected goals in this matchGölcükspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.83

Batman Petrolspor

1.58

Gölcükspor

1.83

Gölcükspor creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 22 away

1.67

creates per match

1.00

2.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Batman Petrolspor

1.67

Gölcükspor

1.00

allows per match

Batman Petrolspor

2.67

Gölcükspor

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Batman Petrolspor+0.00on par

Gölcükspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Batman Petrolspor ↓

Gölcükspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Batman Petrolspor or draw

56%

Batman Petrolspor or Gölcükspor

77%

Draw or Gölcükspor

66%

Winning margin

Batman Petrolspor wins by 2+

16%

Gölcükspor wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Batman Petrolspor 1+ goals

79%

Batman Petrolspor 2+ goals

47%

Batman Petrolspor 3+ goals

21%

Gölcükspor 1+ goals

84%

Gölcükspor 2+ goals

54%

Gölcükspor 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Batman Petrolspor (draw refunded)

43%

Gölcükspor (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Batman Petrolspor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Gölcükspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Batman Petrolspor attack 1.67 + Gölcükspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Gölcükspor attack 1.00 + Batman Petrolspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Batman Petrolspor scores more

34%

level

23%

Gölcükspor scores more

44%

Gölcükspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gölcükspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff