Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Batel vs PSTC Procopense — Paranaense - 2 2025

Batel
Batel
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PSTC Procopense
PSTC Procopense
L. Guilherme 83'
A. Jacare 67'
Dener 81'
5/4/2025Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Waldomiro Gelinski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Batel53%
×Draw27%
PSTC Procopense20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Batel
1.43
PSTC Procopense
0.75

Batel creates 91% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Batel
1.11
PSTC Procopense
0.50

allows per match

Batel
1.00
PSTC Procopense
1.75

finishing

Batel+0.00on par
PSTC Procopense+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Batel ↓

PSTC Procopense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Batel or draw
80%
Batel or PSTC Procopense
73%
Draw or PSTC Procopense
47%

Winning margin

Batel wins by 2+
27%
PSTC Procopense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Batel 1+ goals
76%
Batel 2+ goals
42%
Batel 3+ goals
17%
PSTC Procopense 1+ goals
53%
PSTC Procopense 2+ goals
17%
PSTC Procopense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Batel (draw refunded)
73%
PSTC Procopense (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Batel at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

PSTC Procopense away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Batel attack 1.11 + PSTC Procopense defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

PSTC Procopense attack 0.50 + Batel defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Batel scores more
53%
level
27%
PSTC Procopense scores more
20%

Batel at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Batel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
A. Jacare
81'
Dener
83'
L. Guilherme

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Batel vs PSTC Procopense

Batel beat PSTC Procopense 2-1 in Paranaense - 2 on May 4, 2025.

Goals: A. Jacare (67'), Dener (81'), L. Guilherme (83').

The match was played at Estádio Waldomiro Gelinski in Guarapuava.