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Batel vs Foz Do Iguacu — Paranaense - 2 2025

Batel
Batel
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Foz Do Iguacu
Foz Do Iguacuadvanced
Lucas Eduardo 63' (OG)
6/15/2025Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Waldomiro Gelinski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Batel35%
×Draw30%
Foz Do Iguacu35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Batel
1.06
Foz Do Iguacu
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Batel
1.11
Foz Do Iguacu
1.10

allows per match

Batel
1.00
Foz Do Iguacu
1.00

finishing

Batel+0.00on par
Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Batel ↓

Foz Do Iguacu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Batel or draw
65%
Batel or Foz Do Iguacu
70%
Draw or Foz Do Iguacu
65%

Winning margin

Batel wins by 2+
14%
Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Batel 1+ goals
65%
Batel 2+ goals
29%
Batel 3+ goals
9%
Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals
65%
Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals
28%
Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Batel (draw refunded)
50%
Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Batel at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Foz Do Iguacu away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Batel attack 1.11 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Foz Do Iguacu attack 1.10 + Batel defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Batel scores more
35%
level
30%
Foz Do Iguacu scores more
35%

Batel at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Batel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
Lucas EduardoOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Batel 0–1 Foz Do Iguacu

Foz Do Iguacu beat Batel 1-0 in Paranaense - 2 on June 15, 2025.

Goals: Lucas Eduardo (63' o.g.).

The match was played at Estádio Waldomiro Gelinski in Guarapuava.