Batel U20 1–2 Operário PR U20: Result & Stats

Batel U20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Operário PR U20

5/25/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 11Estádio Waldomiro Gelinski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Batel U2027%

×Draw27%

Operário PR U2046%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Batel U20Expected goals in this matchOperário PR U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.36

Batel U20

0.98

Operário PR U20

1.36

Operário PR U20 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

0.60

creates per match

1.52

1.20

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Batel U20

0.60

Operário PR U20

1.52

allows per match

Batel U20

1.20

Operário PR U20

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Batel U20+0.00on par

Operário PR U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Batel U20 ↓

Operário PR U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Batel U20 or draw

54%

Batel U20 or Operário PR U20

73%

Draw or Operário PR U20

73%

Winning margin

Batel U20 wins by 2+

10%

Operário PR U20 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Batel U20 1+ goals

62%

Batel U20 2+ goals

26%

Batel U20 3+ goals

8%

Operário PR U20 1+ goals

74%

Operário PR U20 2+ goals

39%

Operário PR U20 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Batel U20 (draw refunded)

37%

Operário PR U20 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Batel U20 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Operário PR U20 away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Batel U20 attack 0.60 + Operário PR U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.98

Operário PR U20 attack 1.52 + Batel U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Batel U20 scores more

27%

level

27%

Operário PR U20 scores more

46%

Operário PR U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Operário PR U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff