BATE II 1–1 Lokomotiv Gomel: Result & Stats

BATE II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lokomotiv Gomel

V. Kiselev 41'

I. Kuzmenok 6'

5/12/2024

1. Division · Round 6SOK Olympijskij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

BATE II41%

×Draw24%

Lokomotiv Gomel36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BATE IIExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Gomel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.52

BATE II

1.64

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 121 away

2.00

creates per match

1.37

1.66

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

BATE II

2.00

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.37

allows per match

BATE II

1.66

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BATE II+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BATE II ↓

Lokomotiv Gomel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

BATE II or draw

64%

BATE II or Lokomotiv Gomel

76%

Draw or Lokomotiv Gomel

59%

Winning margin

BATE II wins by 2+

21%

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

BATE II 1+ goals

81%

BATE II 2+ goals

49%

BATE II 3+ goals

23%

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals

78%

Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals

45%

Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

BATE II (draw refunded)

53%

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BATE II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

Lokomotiv Gomel away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.28 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BATE II attack 2.00 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.64

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 1.37 + BATE II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

BATE II scores more

41%

level

24%

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more

36%

BATE II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "BATE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

I. Kuzmenok

41'

V. Kiselev

46'

M. Telesh← P. Kolosovskiy

46'

V. Golovachenko← N. Mirskiy

69'

A. Sakhonchik← A. Blotskiy

72'

N. Starostenko← D. Krivosheev

75'

A. Petrovich← V. Orlovskiy

76'

D. Emelyanov← E. Azerskiy

78'

N. Starostenko

84'

S. Izhakovskiy

BATE

Lokomotiv

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: I. Migal

46'▲M. Telesh←▼P. Kolosovskiy

46'▲V. Golovachenko←▼N. Mirskiy

69'▲A. Sakhonchik←▼A. Blotskiy

75'▲A. Petrovich←▼V. Orlovskiy

BATE II substitutes

TeleshGolovachenkoSakhonchikPetrovichSinkevichMartinovichChuevskiyProtasenyaBrelunenkoMardas

Manager: A. Morozov

72'▲N. Starostenko←▼D. Krivosheev

76'▲D. Emelyanov←▼E. Azerskiy

Lokomotiv Gomel substitutes

StarostenkoEmelyanovKrasnovYanchenkoKaplunovTelepnevKaloshkinKirkoKrivorot

Match Recap: BATE II vs Lokomotiv Gomel

BATE II and Lokomotiv Gomel drew 1-1 in 1. Division on May 12, 2024.

Goals: I. Kuzmenok (6'), V. Kiselev (41').

The match was played at SOK Olympijskij in Minsk.

BATE II vs Lokomotiv Gomel — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: BATE II vs Lokomotiv Gomel