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Bate Borisov vs Ostrovets FC — Coppa 2026

Bate Borisov
Bate Borisovadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
11/7/2023CoppaCoppa · Round of 16Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bate Borisov27%
×Draw20%
Ostrovets FC53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bate Borisov
1.64
Ostrovets FC
2.35

Ostrovets FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bate Borisov
2.41
Ostrovets FC
3.71

allows per match

Bate Borisov
1.00
Ostrovets FC
0.86

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par
Ostrovets FC+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Ostrovets FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw
47%
Bate Borisov or Ostrovets FC
80%
Draw or Ostrovets FC
73%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+
13%
Ostrovets FC wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals
81%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
49%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
23%
Ostrovets FC 1+ goals
90%
Ostrovets FC 2+ goals
68%
Ostrovets FC 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
34%
Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Ostrovets FC away — creates 3.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 2.41 + Ostrovets FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.64

Ostrovets FC attack 3.71 + Bate Borisov defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bate Borisov scores more
27%
level
20%
Ostrovets FC scores more
53%

Ostrovets FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ostrovets FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bate Borisov vs Ostrovets FC

Bate Borisov beat Ostrovets FC 3-1 in Coppa on November 7, 2023.

The match was played at Borisov Arena in Borisov.