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Bate Borisov vs ML Vitebsk — Premier League 2018

Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
4/19/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bate Borisov33%
×Draw25%
ML Vitebsk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bate Borisov
1.31
ML Vitebsk
1.50

ML Vitebsk creates 15% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 24 away

creates per match

Bate Borisov
1.87
ML Vitebsk
1.92

allows per match

Bate Borisov
1.08
ML Vitebsk
0.75

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw
58%
Bate Borisov or ML Vitebsk
75%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
67%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+
14%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals
73%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
38%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
14%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
78%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
44%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
44%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.08 · 126 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.87 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

ML Vitebsk attack 1.92 + Bate Borisov defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bate Borisov scores more
33%
level
25%
ML Vitebsk scores more
42%

ML Vitebsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bate Borisov 1–2 ML Vitebsk

ML Vitebsk beat Bate Borisov 2-1 in Premier League on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Borisov Arena in Barysaw.