Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bate Borisov vs Fehérvár FC — UEFA Europa League 2018

Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
11/29/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 5Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bate Borisov33%
×Draw29%
Fehérvár FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bate Borisov
1.08
Fehérvár FC
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bate Borisov
1.00
Fehérvár FC
1.50

allows per match

Bate Borisov
0.83
Fehérvár FC
1.17

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par
Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Fehérvár FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw
62%
Bate Borisov or Fehérvár FC
71%
Draw or Fehérvár FC
67%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+
13%
Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals
66%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
29%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
10%
Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
69%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
33%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
47%
Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.00 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Fehérvár FC attack 1.50 + Bate Borisov defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bate Borisov scores more
33%
level
29%
Fehérvár FC scores more
38%

Fehérvár FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fehérvár FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bate Borisov vs Fehérvár FC

Bate Borisov beat Fehérvár FC 2-0 in UEFA Europa League on November 29, 2018.

The match was played at Borisov Arena in Borisov.