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Bate Borisov vs FC Isloch Minsk R. — Premier League 2018

Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Isloch Minsk R.
O. Nikiforenko 44'
A. Shestyuk 59'
5/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Bate Borisov46%
×Draw25%
FC Isloch Minsk R.29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bate Borisov
1.58
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.20

Bate Borisov creates 32% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 119 away

creates per match

Bate Borisov
1.81
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.28

allows per match

Bate Borisov
1.12
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.34

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par
FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

FC Isloch Minsk R. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw
71%
Bate Borisov or FC Isloch Minsk R.
75%
Draw or FC Isloch Minsk R.
54%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+
24%
FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals
79%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
47%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
21%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals
70%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals
34%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
61%
FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

FC Isloch Minsk R. away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.81 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.28 + Bate Borisov defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bate Borisov scores more
46%
level
25%
FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more
29%

Bate Borisov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
O. Nikiforenko
46'
D. Galyata← V. Bulmaga
59'
A. Shestyuk
68'
A. Anufriev← V. Sotnikov
71'
I. Khovalko← A. Shestyuk
77'
V. Zhuravlev← K. Kuchinskiy
81'
Z. Gitselev← A. Shvedchikov
81'
D. Zhulpa← I. Aleksievich
86'
K. Gomanov← V. Nihaev
90'
V. Kiselev← A. Panyukov

Statistics

BateFC
Discipline
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Bate Borisov vs FC Isloch Minsk R.

Bate Borisov and FC Isloch Minsk R. drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 3, 2024.

Goals: O. Nikiforenko (44'), A. Shestyuk (59').

The match was played at Borisov Arena in Borisov.