Bate Borisov 0–1 Dinamo Minsk: Result & Stats

Bate Borisov

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Minsk

3/6/2024

Coppa · Quarter-finalsStadion FK Minsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bate Borisov42%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Minsk34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bate BorisovExpected goals in this matchDinamo Minsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.46

Bate Borisov

1.64

Dinamo Minsk

1.46

Bate Borisov creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

2.41

creates per match

1.93

1.00

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Bate Borisov

2.41

Dinamo Minsk

1.93

allows per match

Bate Borisov

1.00

Dinamo Minsk

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Dinamo Minsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw

66%

Bate Borisov or Dinamo Minsk

76%

Draw or Dinamo Minsk

58%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+

21%

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals

81%

Bate Borisov 2+ goals

49%

Bate Borisov 3+ goals

23%

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals

77%

Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals

43%

Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)

55%

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Dinamo Minsk away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 2.41 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.64

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.93 + Bate Borisov defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bate Borisov scores more

42%

level

24%

Dinamo Minsk scores more

34%

Bate Borisov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff