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Batatais vs Maua — Paulista Série B 2026

Batatais
Batatais
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maua
Maua
Unknown 90+6'
7/13/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 3Estádio Doutor Oswaldo Scatena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Batatais41%
×Draw26%
Maua33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Batatais
1.37
Maua
1.21

Batatais creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

creates per match

Batatais
1.29
Maua
1.41

allows per match

Batatais
1.00
Maua
1.45

finishing

Batatais+0.00on par
Maua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Batatais ↓

Maua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Batatais or draw
67%
Batatais or Maua
74%
Draw or Maua
59%

Winning margin

Batatais wins by 2+
19%
Maua wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Batatais 1+ goals
75%
Batatais 2+ goals
40%
Batatais 3+ goals
16%
Maua 1+ goals
70%
Maua 2+ goals
34%
Maua 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Batatais (draw refunded)
55%
Maua (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Batatais at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Maua away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Batatais attack 1.29 + Maua defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.37

Maua attack 1.41 + Batatais defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Batatais scores more
41%
level
26%
Maua scores more
33%

Batatais at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Batatais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+2'
Breno
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Batatais 0 – 1 Maua

Maua beat Batatais 1-0 in Paulista Série B on July 13, 2025.

Goals: ? (90+6').

The match was played at Estádio Doutor Oswaldo Scatena in Batatais, São Paulo.