Batatais 1–0 Independente SP: Result & Stats

Batatais

FT

1 – 0

Independente SP

5/4/2025

Paulista Série B · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Doutor Oswaldo Scatena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Batatais32%

×Draw27%

Independente SP41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BatataisExpected goals in this matchIndependente SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.36

Batatais

1.18

Independente SP

1.36

Independente SP creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

1.29

creates per match

1.73

1.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Batatais

1.29

Independente SP

1.73

allows per match

Batatais

1.00

Independente SP

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Batatais+0.00on par

Independente SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Batatais ↓

Independente SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Batatais or draw

59%

Batatais or Independente SP

73%

Draw or Independente SP

68%

Winning margin

Batatais wins by 2+

13%

Independente SP wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Batatais 1+ goals

69%

Batatais 2+ goals

33%

Batatais 3+ goals

12%

Independente SP 1+ goals

74%

Independente SP 2+ goals

39%

Independente SP 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Batatais (draw refunded)

44%

Independente SP (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Batatais at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Independente SP away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Batatais attack 1.29 + Independente SP defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Independente SP attack 1.73 + Batatais defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Batatais scores more

32%

level

27%

Independente SP scores more

41%

Independente SP at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff