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Bastia vs Reims — Ligue 2 2018

Bastia
Bastia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Reims
Reims
A. Roncaglia 20'
T. Teuma 90'
H. Ibrahim 28'
A. Tia 25'
11/7/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade Armand Cesari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bastia33%
×Draw28%
Reims39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bastia
1.09
Reims
1.20

Reims creates 10% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bastia
1.18
Reims
1.47

allows per match

Bastia
0.93
Reims
1.00

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bastia or draw
61%
Bastia or Reims
72%
Draw or Reims
67%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+
13%
Reims wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals
66%
Bastia 2+ goals
30%
Bastia 3+ goals
10%
Reims 1+ goals
70%
Reims 2+ goals
34%
Reims 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)
46%
Reims (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches

Reims away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.18 + Reims defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Reims attack 1.47 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bastia scores more
33%
level
28%
Reims scores more
39%

Reims at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

87
A. TiaReimsReims · M
7.9

Match Events

20'
A. Roncaglia↳ J. Guevara
23'
Anthony Roncaglia
25'
A. Tia↳ T. Leoni
28'
H. Ibrahim
30'
Mory Gbane
40'
Nicolas Pallois
49'
Felix Tomi
49'
Abdoul Kone
56'
Zakaria Ariss
59'
Dominique Guidi
63'
Ange Tia
66'
L. Etoga← J. Janneh
66'
I. Karamoko← M. Ble
66'
A. Aiki← C. Vincent
74'
J. Patrick← M. Gbane
74'
T. Teuma← A. Tia
74'
T. Diarra← A. Salama
79'
N. Parravicini← T. Meynadier
81'
H. Sekine← K. Nakamura
85'
M. Petrignani← A. Roncaglia
90+1'
Elie← H. Ibrahim
90'
T. Teuma↳ T. Diarra

Possession

46%Bastia

Shots

17Bastia

Pass accuracy

49%Bastia

Statistics

BastiaReims
Overview
46%Possession54%
17Total Shots9
2Corners4
13Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots9
2On Target5
8Off Target3
7Blocked1
11Inside Box7
6Outside Box2
Passing
46%Possession54%
328Total Passes400
241Accurate Passes309
73%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls15
4Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Bastia 1 – 3 Reims

Reims beat Bastia 3-1 in Ligue 2 on November 7, 2025.

Goals: A. Roncaglia (20'), A. Tia (25'), H. Ibrahim (28'), T. Teuma (90').

Reims controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stade Armand Cesari in Bastia.