Bastia 2–0 Concarneau: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Bastia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Concarneau

G. Charbonnier 90+4'

B. Santelli 52'

4/23/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 34Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bastia45%

×Draw29%

Concarneau26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BastiaExpected goals in this matchConcarneau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.89

Bastia

1.27

Concarneau

0.89

Bastia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 19 away

1.18

creates per match

0.84

0.93

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Bastia

1.18

Concarneau

0.84

allows per match

Bastia

0.93

Concarneau

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par

Concarneau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Concarneau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bastia or draw

74%

Bastia or Concarneau

71%

Draw or Concarneau

55%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+

21%

Concarneau wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals

72%

Bastia 2+ goals

36%

Bastia 3+ goals

14%

Concarneau 1+ goals

59%

Concarneau 2+ goals

22%

Concarneau 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)

63%

Concarneau (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches

Concarneau away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.18 + Concarneau defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Concarneau attack 0.84 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bastia scores more

45%

level

29%

Concarneau scores more

26%

Bastia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Placide

Bastia · G

7.7

Match Events

46'

Julien Celestine

52'

B. Santelli↳ F. Bohnert

56'

Issiar Drame

63'

F. Bianchini← B. Santelli

66'

B. Moussiti-Oko← N. Chadli

66'

K. Diawara← A. Urié

66'

I. Matondo← B. Mouazan

70'

T. Sinquin← A. Phliponeau

72'

Bevic Moussiti Oko

74'

T. Meynadier← F. Bohnert

74'

M. Siby← C. Vincent

82'

A. Roncaglia← J. Janneh

82'

G. Charbonnier← M. Alfarela

82'

J. Faussurier← A. Georgen

90+4'

G. Charbonnier↳ F. Bianchini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BastiaConcarneau

Overview

45%Possession55%

22Total Shots6

4Corners3

16Fouls8

Shots

22Total Shots6

5On Target3

12Off Target0

5Blocked3

14Inside Box1

8Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

402Total Passes493

334Accurate Passes398

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1