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Bastia vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

Bastia
Bastia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
10/18/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Bastia39%
×Draw29%
Clermont Foot31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bastia
1.17
Clermont Foot
1.01

Bastia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 87 away

creates per match

Bastia
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.09

allows per match

Bastia
0.92
Clermont Foot
1.14

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bastia or draw
69%
Bastia or Clermont Foot
71%
Draw or Clermont Foot
61%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+
17%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals
69%
Bastia 2+ goals
33%
Bastia 3+ goals
11%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
64%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
27%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)
56%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.92 · 91 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.19 + Clermont Foot defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Clermont Foot attack 1.09 + Bastia defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bastia scores more
39%
level
29%
Clermont Foot scores more
31%

Bastia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
G. AkuesonBastiaBastia · D
7.9

Match Events

51'
Allan Ackra
58'
J. Gastien← A. Ackra
65'
Gustave Akueson
72'
C. Rodrigues← J. Maggiotti
72'
F. Bohnert← Dylan Tavares
77'
M. Bassouamina← O. Diop
77'
M. Douane← M. Baaloudj
81'
Zakaria Ariss
86'
Habib Keita
90+4'
Johan Gastien
90+2'
Habib Keita
90+2'
Habib Keita
90+2'
F. Tomi← T. Meynadier

Possession

59%Bastia

Shots

16Bastia

Pass accuracy

54%Bastia

Statistics

BastiaClermont
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots6
11Corners5
7Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots6
4On Target2
8Off Target1
4Blocked3
6Inside Box3
10Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
484Total Passes337
403Accurate Passes240
83%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls12
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1

Ligue 2: Bastia 0–0 Clermont Foot

Bastia and Clermont Foot drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on October 18, 2024.

Bastia controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani.