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Bastia vs Annecy — Ligue 2 2018

Bastia
Bastia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Annecy
Annecy
A. Boutrah 51' (pen)
L. Cissé 39'
T. Dago 82'
J. Guevara 10' (OG)
9/27/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Bastia42%
×Draw27%
Annecy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bastia
1.32
Annecy
1.08

Bastia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 72 away

creates per match

Bastia
1.18
Annecy
1.24

allows per match

Bastia
0.93
Annecy
1.47

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par
Annecy+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Annecy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bastia or draw
70%
Bastia or Annecy
73%
Draw or Annecy
58%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+
19%
Annecy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals
73%
Bastia 2+ goals
38%
Bastia 3+ goals
15%
Annecy 1+ goals
66%
Annecy 2+ goals
29%
Annecy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)
58%
Annecy (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches

Annecy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.18 + Annecy defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Annecy attack 1.24 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bastia scores more
42%
level
27%
Annecy scores more
30%

Bastia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
L. CisséBastiaBastia · F
7.9

Match Events

10'
J. GuevaraOwn goal
16'
Johny Placide
16'
Gustave Akueson
26'
Francois Lajugie
38'
Ritchy Valme
39'
L. Cissé↳ C. Vincent
46'
A. Roncaglia← G. Akueson
46'
T. Delphis← F. Lajugie
51'
A. BoutrahPenalty
57'
V. Pajot← W. Tiendrébéogo
57'
J. Kouadio← R. Valme
58'
H. Soukouna← F. Nsakala
61'
J. Maggiotti← J. Janneh
61'
F. Tomi← A. Boutrah
72'
C. Rodrigues← L. Tramoni
73'
T. Dago← K. Djoco
80'
T. Meynadier← L. Cissé
82'
T. Dago
85'
Axel Drouhin
90+4'
Yohan Demoncy

Possession

56%Bastia

Shots

19Bastia

Pass accuracy

54%Bastia

Statistics

BastiaAnnecy
Overview
56%Possession44%
19Total Shots9
3Corners3
11Fouls21
Shots
19Total Shots9
9On Target2
8Off Target5
2Blocked2
14Inside Box4
5Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
378Total Passes303
253Accurate Passes176
67%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
11Fouls21
2Yellow Cards4
3Offsides2

Ligue 2: Bastia 2–2 Annecy

Bastia and Annecy drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on September 27, 2024.

Goals: J. Guevara (10' o.g.), L. Cissé (39'), A. Boutrah (51' pen), T. Dago (82').

Bastia controlled possession (56%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani.