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Bastia vs Angers — Ligue 2 2018

Bastia
Bastia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Angers
Angers
M. Alfarela 60'
F. Bianchini 29'
1/13/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Bastia39%
×Draw28%
Angers33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bastia
1.21
Angers
1.10

Bastia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 22 away

creates per match

Bastia
1.18
Angers
1.27

allows per match

Bastia
0.93
Angers
1.23

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par
Angers+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Angers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bastia or draw
67%
Bastia or Angers
72%
Draw or Angers
61%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+
17%
Angers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals
70%
Bastia 2+ goals
34%
Bastia 3+ goals
12%
Angers 1+ goals
67%
Angers 2+ goals
30%
Angers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)
54%
Angers (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches

Angers away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.18 + Angers defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Angers attack 1.27 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bastia scores more
39%
level
28%
Angers scores more
33%

Bastia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. AlfarelaBastiaBastia · F
8.3

Match Events

23'
Jocelyn Janneh
29'
F. Bianchini↳ M. Alfarela
46'
I. Niané← J. Lopy
60'
M. Alfarela↳ B. Santelli
61'
J. Bahoya← F. El Melali
61'
Z. Ould Khaled← P. Capelle
71'
F. Tomi← F. Bianchini
76'
K. Djoco← M. Alfarela
82'
A. Roncaglia← C. Traoré
82'
R. Yapi← B. Santelli
83'
M. Souboul← J. Janneh
84'
A. Hunou← Z. Ferhat

Possession

48%Bastia

Shots

14Bastia

Pass accuracy

49%Bastia

Statistics

BastiaAngers
Overview
48%Possession52%
14Total Shots1
8Corners4
9Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots1
5On Target0
6Off Target1
3Blocked0
9Inside Box1
5Outside Box0
Passing
48%Possession52%
492Total Passes539
400Accurate Passes447
81%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides3

Bastia 2 – 0 Angers

Bastia beat Angers 2-0 in Ligue 2 on January 13, 2024.

Goals: F. Bianchini (29'), M. Alfarela (60').

Angers controlled possession (52%) and registered 1 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani.