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Bastia vs Amiens — Ligue 2 2018

Bastia
Bastia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Amiens
Amiens
F. Bianchini 70'
L. Mafouta 38', 35'
5/3/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 36Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Bastia46%
×Draw28%
Amiens27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bastia
1.35
Amiens
0.96

Bastia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 111 away

creates per match

Bastia
1.18
Amiens
0.98

allows per match

Bastia
0.93
Amiens
1.52

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par
Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Amiens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bastia or draw
73%
Bastia or Amiens
72%
Draw or Amiens
54%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+
22%
Amiens wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals
74%
Bastia 2+ goals
39%
Bastia 3+ goals
15%
Amiens 1+ goals
62%
Amiens 2+ goals
25%
Amiens 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)
63%
Amiens (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches

Amiens away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.18 + Amiens defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Amiens attack 0.98 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bastia scores more
46%
level
28%
Amiens scores more
27%

Bastia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
L. MafoutaAmiensAmiens · F
8.7

Match Events

35'
L. Mafouta↳ F. Boya
38'
L. Mafouta↳ M. Jaouab
48'
Anthony Roncaglia
49'
Mohamed Souboul
52'
Jocelyn Janneh
57'
Anthony Roncaglia
57'
Anthony Roncaglia
65'
G. Charbonnier← M. Alfarela
66'
F. Tomi← M. Souboul
66'
F. Conté← J. Janneh
70'
F. Bianchini↳ F. Conté
71'
A. Ouhatti← F. Boya
71'
Y. Ikia Dimi← M. Chouiar
72'
Facinet Conte
79'
Sebastian Ring
82'
A. Amraoui← S. Ring
90+5'
Mohamed Jaouab
90+6'
N. Opoku← J. Gélin

Possession

59%Bastia

Shots

12Bastia

Pass accuracy

54%Bastia

Statistics

BastiaAmiens
Overview
59%Possession41%
12Total Shots12
1Corners3
16Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots12
6On Target6
5Off Target5
1Blocked1
5Inside Box9
7Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
504Total Passes349
411Accurate Passes246
82%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls13
5Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Bastia 1 – 2 Amiens

Amiens beat Bastia 2-1 in Ligue 2 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: L. Mafouta (35', 38'), F. Bianchini (70').

Bastia controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani.