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Bastendorf vs Sporting Bertrange — Cup 2020

Bastendorf
Bastendorf
FT
2 – 4
Sporting Bertrange
Sporting Bertrange
9/12/2021CupCup · 1st RoundStade Millewiss

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bastendorf16%
×Draw15%
Sporting Bertrange69%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bastendorf
1.45
Sporting Bertrange
3.08

Sporting Bertrange creates 112% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bastendorf
1.50
Sporting Bertrange
3.00

allows per match

Bastendorf
3.17
Sporting Bertrange
1.40

finishing

Bastendorf+0.00on par
Sporting Bertrange+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastendorf ↓

Sporting Bertrange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Bastendorf or draw
31%
Bastendorf or Sporting Bertrange
85%
Draw or Sporting Bertrange
84%

Winning margin

Bastendorf wins by 2+
6%
Sporting Bertrange wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Bastendorf 1+ goals
77%
Bastendorf 2+ goals
42%
Bastendorf 3+ goals
18%
Sporting Bertrange 1+ goals
95%
Sporting Bertrange 2+ goals
81%
Sporting Bertrange 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Bastendorf (draw refunded)
18%
Sporting Bertrange (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastendorf at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Sporting Bertrange away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastendorf attack 1.50 + Sporting Bertrange defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sporting Bertrange attack 3.00 + Bastendorf defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bastendorf scores more
16%
level
15%
Sporting Bertrange scores more
69%

Sporting Bertrange at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sporting Bertrange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Bastendorf 2–4 Sporting Bertrange

Sporting Bertrange beat Bastendorf 4-2 in Cup on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Millewiss in Bastendorf.