Bastendorf 1–4 F91 Dudelange: Result & Stats | Cup

Bastendorf

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

F91 Dudelange

3/12/2025

Cup · Round of 16Stade Millewiss

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bastendorf11%

×Draw12%

F91 Dudelange77%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BastendorfExpected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

3.58

Bastendorf

1.35

F91 Dudelange

3.58

F91 Dudelange creates 165% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

1.50

creates per match

4.00

3.17

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Bastendorf

1.50

F91 Dudelange

4.00

allows per match

Bastendorf

3.17

F91 Dudelange

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bastendorf+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastendorf ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–36%

0–45%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Bastendorf or draw

23%

Bastendorf or F91 Dudelange

88%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

89%

Winning margin

Bastendorf wins by 2+

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

59%

Team goals

Bastendorf 1+ goals

74%

Bastendorf 2+ goals

39%

Bastendorf 3+ goals

15%

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

97%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

86%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

67%

Draw no bet

Bastendorf (draw refunded)

12%

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bastendorf at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bastendorf attack 1.50 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

F91 Dudelange attack 4.00 + Bastendorf defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 3.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Bastendorf scores more

11%

level

12%

F91 Dudelange scores more

77%

F91 Dudelange at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff