Bassin d'Arcachon Sud 0–1 Blagnac: Result & Stats

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blagnac

2/28/2026

League #461 · Group A - 15Stade Jean Brousse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud35%

×Draw34%

Blagnac31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bassin d'Arcachon SudExpected goals in this matchBlagnac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.83

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud

0.90

Blagnac

0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud

1.00

Blagnac

1.00

allows per match

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud

0.67

Blagnac

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud+0.00on par

Blagnac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud ↓

Blagnac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud or draw

69%

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud or Blagnac

66%

Draw or Blagnac

65%

Winning margin

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud wins by 2+

12%

Blagnac wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud 1+ goals

59%

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud 2+ goals

23%

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud 3+ goals

6%

Blagnac 1+ goals

56%

Blagnac 2+ goals

20%

Blagnac 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud (draw refunded)

53%

Blagnac (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Blagnac away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud attack 1.00 + Blagnac defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Blagnac attack 1.00 + Bassin d'Arcachon Sud defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud scores more

35%

level

34%

Blagnac scores more

31%

Bassin d'Arcachon Sud at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Bassin d'Arcachon Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff