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Bassecourt vs Köniz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Bassecourt
Bassecourt
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Köniz
Köniz
9/24/20221. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Stade des Grands-Prés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Bassecourt46%
×Draw23%
Köniz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bassecourt
1.78
Köniz
1.41

Bassecourt creates 26% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 43 away

creates per match

Bassecourt
1.90
Köniz
1.35

allows per match

Bassecourt
1.46
Köniz
1.67

finishing

Bassecourt+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bassecourt ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bassecourt or draw
69%
Bassecourt or Köniz
77%
Draw or Köniz
54%

Winning margin

Bassecourt wins by 2+
25%
Köniz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bassecourt 1+ goals
83%
Bassecourt 2+ goals
53%
Bassecourt 3+ goals
26%
Köniz 1+ goals
76%
Köniz 2+ goals
41%
Köniz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bassecourt (draw refunded)
60%
Köniz (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bassecourt at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.46 · 87 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bassecourt attack 1.90 + Köniz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Köniz attack 1.35 + Bassecourt defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bassecourt scores more
46%
level
23%
Köniz scores more
31%

Bassecourt at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bassecourt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Bassecourt 2–0 Köniz

Bassecourt beat Köniz 2-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stade des Grands-Prés in Bassecourt.