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Bassecourt vs Dietikon — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Bassecourt
Bassecourt
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dietikon
Dietikon
8/16/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stade des Grands-Prés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bassecourt45%
×Draw23%
Dietikon32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bassecourt
1.78
Dietikon
1.46

Bassecourt creates 22% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bassecourt
1.90
Dietikon
1.47

allows per match

Bassecourt
1.46
Dietikon
1.67

finishing

Bassecourt+0.00on par
Dietikon+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bassecourt ↓

Dietikon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bassecourt or draw
68%
Bassecourt or Dietikon
77%
Draw or Dietikon
55%

Winning margin

Bassecourt wins by 2+
24%
Dietikon wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bassecourt 1+ goals
83%
Bassecourt 2+ goals
53%
Bassecourt 3+ goals
26%
Dietikon 1+ goals
77%
Dietikon 2+ goals
43%
Dietikon 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bassecourt (draw refunded)
59%
Dietikon (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bassecourt at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.46 · 87 matches

Dietikon away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bassecourt attack 1.90 + Dietikon defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Dietikon attack 1.47 + Bassecourt defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bassecourt scores more
45%
level
23%
Dietikon scores more
32%

Bassecourt at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bassecourt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Bassecourt 0–1 Dietikon

Dietikon beat Bassecourt 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on August 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stade des Grands-Prés in Bassecourt.